A little confused about how we’ve gotten to…well, ~gestures to everything~? The S&P 500 down roughly 25% YTD, record-high inflation, and rate hike after rate hike?

SoFi’s head of investment strategy, Liz Young, joins me to break it all down—and makes a few historically informed predictions about what’s likely on the horizon in 2023.

She addresses why she thinks now’s the time on which we’re all going to look back and wish we bought more, what to buy during downturns, and the relationship between the stock market and the bond market.

Listen now on your favorite podcast player, or catch the discussion on YouTube!

Inflation is at its highest level in 40 years. Grocery budgets are straining at the seams. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West answered with “I think the fuck not” plus oil sanctions that led to gas price spikes. The Fed is gluing down the button that raises rates and playing an unprofitable game of chicken with investors and borrowers alike.

Basically, we’re living through the 1970s all over again—and it feels like there are a lot of reasons to be pessimistic. Media in general—and financial media specifically—loves when things are going wrong, because negativity and pessimism drive far more clicks than a bland, reasonable message like, “Well, it’ll probably be fine.”

Our brains are hardwired to perceive negativity as more truthful, more intelligent—and as a result, fear-mongering tends to run rampant when things seem like they are Going Very Badly™.

The alarmists are harmonizing the refrains of their favorite Sunday hymnal, This Time It’s Different, explaining (some with earnestly positive intentions, to be fair) that investing in the stock market right now would be a no good, very bad idea. This is usually followed by something about “fiat, bitcoin fixes this, whole life insurance or bust” on a droning loop. They shoot down messages of optimism as uninformed or unsophisticated. When the vibes are off, it can feel safer to heed our gut instincts that something dire is afoot, pause our contributions to our brokerage accounts, and wait it out on the sidelines.

There’s only one problem: Our perception of danger in the markets is highly uncorrelated with how dangerous the market actually is at any given time.

Of course, that’s not to say the market won’t go lower. That’s not to say there isn’t some macroeconomic trouble on the horizon. That’s not even to say this time it won’t be different, or that we aren’t headed for a flat decade—just that, all things considered, most of these doomsday Paul Reveres are about a year late. And ultimately? Nobody actually knows.

Even if bad things are ahead (like catastrophic events of the past that preceded recessions from which the stock market eventually recovered—a Great Depression, a housing market implosion, a massive terrorist attack, a Gulf War, an oil embargo, or…well, I think you get the picture), we have a relatively solid idea of what typically happens when shit goes awry at scale, thanks to the last 80 years.

Keep reading to learn what the past century of recessions tell us about stock market returns through downturns.

The Patient on Hulu. A man chains up Steve Carell-as-therapist in his basement for on-demand therapy because he has a blinding urge to kill people who wrong him. I feel like this has to be an allegory for something, but I can’t figure out what.

This episode of Plain English with Derek Thompson, an interview with internet economist and meme connoisseur, Kyla Scanlon. Derek is one of my favorite writers at The Atlantic so I was pumped to see he had a podcast where he talked about work and money.

Paid non-client of Betterment. Views may not be representative, see more reviews at the App Store and Google Play Store. Learn more about this relationship. 

$$$ goals: No matter what the market is doing, staying invested with a diversified portfolio is key as you work towards financial success. Betterment can help you get started!. Sign up in just a few minutes.*

^{*This is sponsored advertising content.}

When I first discovered the illustrious world of personal finance, I noticed something: Everyone who positions themselves as a ~thought leader~ in this space seems to have slightly varied opinions about the best way to build wealth.

The fundamentals, though, are clear: One must earn more, spend less, and invest the difference.

While we’re typically quick to embrace strategies for creating extra income or throwing cash at the stock market, building a thoughtful, realistic spending plan sometimes gets the shaft.

It wasn’t until I had a one-on-one session with someone earning more than $300,000 who claimed she had no idea why it felt like her family was living paycheck to paycheck that it really sunk in for me: The spending plan almost always has to come first.

Fortunately, you don’t have to do it alone. Budget Like a Millionaire is my signature on-demand, four-step process for psychologically, tactically aligning your spending to your goals.

Intended to be taken over the course of four thoughtful weeks, it includes lifetime access and a free Wealth Planner file that I update every year with the new version (a recurring $40 value, if you were eyeing both!). Plus, pretty great timing as we gear up for the holidays and travel, if I do say so myself.

Check it out.